2026 Michigan Economic Forecast: Tariff Tumult

Tim Keenan | DBusiness | December 15th, 2025

Ever-shifting tariff and immigration policies make it difficult for companies to set growth plans in the United States, Michigan, and metro Detroit.

Economic forecasts are difficult enough under normal circumstances. Global events, natural disasters, pandemics, and consumer whims can turn the most scientifically based prediction on its head at a moment’s notice.

One area of Michigan’s economy that experts are pointing to is Detroit’s modest increase in population. “What cuts through everything is population growth,” says Sam Huszczo, founder and chief investment officer at SGH Wealth Management in Lathrup Village. “Without population growth it’s difficult for an economy to kick into gear. With 1.1 percent population growth, Detroit ranks better than the state and nation.”

“The population growth has been encouraging. Also encouraging, payrolls are up modestly. All of that is encouraging and a bedrock to continue the growth. I anticipate more good things to happen from that standpoint.”

Like U-M’s Ehrlich, Huszczo looks for growth in areas apart from the auto industry. “We’re still way too dependent on the auto industry,” Huszczo says. “In Michigan, the biggest positive GDP percentage changes were in construction, information technology, and real estate. The agriculture segment is down and has taken the biggest step backward as a result of the tariff situation.”

Unlike other states, Michigan “is actually dependent on international immigration and, with Trump’s policies, that’s kind of stalling,” Huszczo adds. “Because of the business dynamics, which don’t compare favorably to other states, we might not be able to rely on a large amount of international immigration, which might make it a tougher path for Michigan.”

Huszczo, of SGH Wealth Management, also is bullish on Detroit’s economic future yet cautions against “irrational exuberence.” “Detroit is on a growth path, but it’s more vulnerable to unexpected events than an average U.S. city,” he says. “What we learned from the COVID-19 experience is that even though Detroit is on a growth path, any derailment from that path results in the economy being hit hard. Detroit doesn’t have the kind of wealth and assets to easily weather that storm.”

Ultimately, “the way the auto industry goes might be putting a damper on Detroit, as well,” he adds.

“When you have a ton of uncertainty, predictions become a lot of junk science,” Huszczo says. “The certainty that comes with permanent tax law fighting against the uncertainty of tariffs is a situation we’re all going to (have to wait and) see who wins. I’m excited about Detroit, mildly excited about the United States, and neutral on the state of Michigan.”