SpaceX is undoubtedly one of the most impressive companies of our generation. Reusable rockets have transformed the economics of space travel. Starlink has built a global communications network that reaches places traditional infrastructure cannot. The company has done things that sounded like science fiction not that long ago. None of this automatically makes the stock a good investment.
Of course, it’s worth remembering that Facebook lost roughly (-54%) of its value after its IPO before later becoming one of the greatest investments of the last generation. Great companies and great investments don’t always arrive at the same time.
Part of the excitement surrounding SpaceX shows a bigger shift that’s happened over the last twenty years. Companies used to go public as teenagers. Now they show up with a mortgage and three kids. Companies are staying private longer, raising enormous amounts of private capital, and waiting much later to invite public investors to the table. By the time many investors get access, much of the early wealth creation has already occurred.
In other words, while the headline valuation is enormous, the actual effect on S&P 500 index funds may be smaller than many investors assume. The people doing the math are probably a lot less excited than the people posting rocket emojis on social media. The challenge for investors today is that many feel they’ve already missed the great opportunities of the last twenty years. Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Nvidia. The fear is no longer losing money, the fear is missing the next one and FOMO has probably destroyed more wealth than fear itself.
SpaceX may ultimately justify every penny of its valuation. Great companies change the world. Great investments depend on the price you pay.
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