Shooting at Trump rally: Wall Street calculates impact amid political turmoil

Shooting at Trump rally: Wall Street calculates impact amid political turmoil

Susan Tompor | Detroit Free Press | July 15th, 2024

Violent, chaotic images remain ingrained in our minds after Saturday’s historic shooting at a presidential campaign rally in rural Pennsylvania.

The gunshots ended the life of one well-loved family man who was attending the rally for former President Donald Trump, who was injured Saturday.

On Monday morning, Wall Street turned to calculating the impact of an attempted assassination of a popular but controversial presidential candidate.

One adviser called the shooting at the Trump rally “simply a numbing day for our country.”

Wall Street, he said, doesn’t like uncertainty in general, so many would watch to see the initial reaction of investors and traders. But the trading on Monday opened rather calmly. And the Dow ended the day hitting a record close.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up roughly 200 points or 0.5% to trade at 40,203 points shortly after the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. The Dow was up 0.66% or 262.85 points shortly after 11 a.m. in trading.

The Dow ended the day at 4 p.m. and closed at a record 40,211.72 points, up 210.82 points or 0.53%.

“Fortunately, uncertainty is well reduced with former President Trump alive,” he said late Saturday evening. But he noted that the shooting, which is being investigated as an assassination attempt, puts more emphasis on the importance of the former president’s selection of a vice president this week at the GOP convention in Milwaukee.

On Monday afternoon, Trump ended the speculation and picked Ohio Sen. JD Vance to be his 2024 vice presidential running mate.

Oddly enough, and yes, Wall Street can react in incredibly strange ways, some wondered whether the shooting would trigger yet another rally on Wall Street.

Shooting at Trump rally: Wall Street calculates impact amid political turmoil Sam G. Huszczo, CFP, CFA SGH Wealth Management

Though it may not be intuitive, one local financial adviser suggested before trading Monday morning that an unsuccessful attempt on the life of the former president could contribute to a good day for stocks — if the belief is that Trump (who was not seriously injured) will gain popularity as a candidate.

“The stock market performed well under the Trump administration and if the perception of this unfortunate event is that he is more likely to win, then the markets could react positively,” said Sam G. Huszczo, a chartered financial analyst in Southfield.

“Even former presidents aren’t immune to the shootings problem of America,” Huszczo said. “A scary event indeed, however, this could likely be looked back at as the moment that Trump started to separate himself from Biden towards the presidency.”

Regardless of politics, Huszczo noted that Trump engaged in an “impressive seize of the moment” when minutes after the shooting Trump rallied his crowd by stopping to pump his fist and say “fight” before being escorted by U.S. Secret Service to a black SUV.

The 20-year-old suspected shooter on a nearby rooftop, is dead. The investigation is ongoing into Thomas Matthew Crooks’ background, his motives, and his family. One person at the presidential campaign rally was killed and two others were seriously injured but reportedly in stable condition Sunday.

Trump was bloodied and injured in the right ear but quickly alerted supporters Sunday that he planned to give an acceptance speech as the GOP candidate for president at the convention in Milwaukee, which begins Monday.

A different local adviser said the markets are in a mode of “anybody but Biden” and appear to see the likelihood of a Republican takeover of federal government, if they win the presidency, the Senate and maintain control of the House. “That portends decreased regulation and a continuation of the Trump tax cuts,” he said. “This was similar to the Reagan playbook.”

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research, ran some historical numbers for stock performances after 10 prior assassination attempts of presidents and presidential candidates. On average, he concluded that the Dow Jones Industrial Average tended to be down 1.1% in the first day of trading after such violent episodes.

Shooting at Trump rally: Wall Street calculates impact amid political turmoil Sam G. Huszczo, CFP, CFA SGH Wealth Management

The most recent attempt was back in 2005 of President George W. Bush, and the Dow was down 1% then.

After President Ronald Reagan was wounded after being shot by John Hinckley Jr. on March 30, 1981, the Dow was down 1.4%.

After President John F. Kennedy was killed on Nov. 22, 1963, the Dow was down 2.9%.

After the attempt on the life of President Franklin D. Roosevelt on Feb. 13, 1933, the Dow was down 4.3%.

President Gerald R. Ford faced two assassinations attempts in 1975, which oddly enough again resulted in two different kinds of days for the Dow. The Dow was down 0.3% after the Sept. 5, 1975 attempt by Lynnette “Squeaky” Fromme in Sacramento, California, but up 0.7% after Sara Jane Moore attempted to kill Ford in San Francisco on Sept. 22, 1975.