The Landscape (Part 2/3 Series on Politics & the Markets)
This will mark Part 2 of our 3-Part Series on Politics and the Markets: The Update. This week we were fortunate enough to host Chief US Policy Strategist and Political Insider Greg Valliere on our podcast, NutShell. With over 40 years’ experience analyzing policy & the markets, Greg is a wealth of unbiased knowledge and is frequently seen on CNN, CNBC, Fox News, & more. Below are some important findings from this discussion and the full interview can be found below:
With a massive increase in mail-in ballots, Election Day will not feel the same this year. It took some New York City districts over 6 weeks to count their mail-in ballots during the primaries and rural America may have less in resources. Trump has mentioned ballots being manipulated and if he does not go down without a fight, its entirely plausible that we could get to mid-December without knowing for certain who the next US President will be. Remember that it took all the way until December 12th for the Supreme Court to decide on our last contested election between Bush vs Gore.
Its hard to tell whether the markets are prepared for a long period of uncertainty, but if the Senate has already flipped Democratic before this point, we could now foresee heightened volatility extending through December.
Michigan, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin are all must win states for Biden and it is the female demographic that could likely dictate these electoral votes. Though Hillary Clinton broke many barriers in her run for the Presidency, she was not able to get the high voter turnout that she had expected in this key demographic.
People do vote differently with their mouths than they do with their money and bond traders have started to trade toward a Democratic sweep. That said, the numbers are still very tight, and a recently uncovered affair of the North Carolina Democratic Candidate could have a larger effect than expected. If we do see a Democratic Sweep, it will be time to get better acquainted with the Filibuster Rule, which Biden has said he will keep in place.
Listen to the NutShell podcast episode here to learn more about: Unbiased news sources, The Filibuster Rule, Both Candidate’s 2021 Policy Effects on Sectors, the most important man in Washington… Jerome Powell, and more in the top link below: